The Colts’ decision to release Peyton Manning has already been dissected a thousand different ways. So let’s move to the next discussion point: What can Manning bring to the table and to which table should that be?
Let’s keep a few things in mind: Peyton Manning turns 36 this month. He’s had four neck operations in the last year, the first of which was supposed to sideline him for only a few months. It remains largely unknown how well he can actually throw. Even once that becomes known, still unknown is how well he can throw after being hit.
Even if Manning is 100 percent, he might not be a surefire superstar with no horseshoe on his helmet. There’s still the issue of acclimating to new surroundings. Part of the reason Manning is one of the greatest quarterbacks is he’s had the rare opportunity to spend his entire career in one system – a system that was completely tailored to him. His coaching staff and teammates have been relatively constant. He’s enjoyed familiar settings and a fast indoor track, too.
To be clear, this steady environment did not create Manning’s greatness; Manning’s greatness created the steady environment. But the process took several years, not one off-season.
Whatever team Manning joins will probably adopt his system. That means everyone – even coaches – will be learning something new. It’s a relatively simple but highly controlled system, making practice reps crucial. If Manning is not 100 percent ready for OTA’s (Organized Team Activities), his new team will have a steep uphill climb in August. If he is 100 percent, his new team still faces a normal uphill climb. Manning is not a guy you simply plug in and play with.
Though the literal costs and opportunity costs of signing Manning are staggering, if you’re a team in need of a quarterback and have true Super Bowl aspirations, you’d be foolish not to pursue him. A healthy Manning is still Peyton Manning. He might not be exactly what he was in Indy, but his physical tools and football I.Q. would keep him in that elite class that his brother recently joined. Manning’s new contract could be structured in a way that’s easy to cancel should the experiment fail. A club that does this would still wind up losing at least $10 million more than it would have lost with a rookie or placeholder quarterback, but at least that club won’t be feeling the damage for years to come.
In terms of opportunity cost, yes, it’s a lot to rewrite an entire offensive system. But teams that opt for a safer (i.e. cheaper) quarterback will most likely be tying the tight strings of simplicity to whatever system they go with anyway. At least an experiment with Manning’s system gives everyone a chance to learn from a proven playbook. And Manning is one of the few players who can instill a winning culture simply by walking through the door. Even if, for some reason, that didn’t translate to actual winning, there are worse things than exposing your franchise to Manning’s M.O.
The Redskins, the Texans and the Dolphins have been linked to Manning. The Redskins wouldn’t make sense; they have a dearth of talent at wide receiver, a West Coast system that is radically different from what Manning is used to (meaning either Manning would have to learn a new system or Mike Shanahan would have to scrap his system – both far from ideal) and a history of failed veteran signings that, while not actually relevant to this particular situation, is too embarrassing to factor in.
The Texans have essentially the same offense as the Redskins, only with talent. But that keeps afloat the issue of Manning having to play in an unfamiliar system or a West Coast coach (Gary Kubiak) having to abruptly overhaul his system. As it stands, the Texans barely have enough cap space to sign their coming rookie class; is it worth clearing salaries to reconfigure an offense that has finished in the top 10 in either points or yards each of the last four years?
The Dolphins could be a fit, but former Green Bay offensive coordinator Joe Philbin was just hired as coach presumably because the owner Stephen Ross wants him to install the Packer offense. Does Philbin’s system get put on hold while Manning is around? That’d probably be worthwhile, but it’s a sacrifice nevertheless.
Then there are the Jets. For Manning, the Jets make less sense than the Dolphins simply because a.) they’re a circus and b.) their offensive personnel is not quite as dynamic as the Dolphins’ (though that could change if Santonio Holmes rediscovers enough passion to start beating man coverage again). But the Jets have a defense that, like those Colt defenses over the years, is built to win on passing downs. A Manning-led offense would ultimately create more passing downs for New York’s opponents.
The Manning-to-New York naysayers might point out that by replacing offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer with Tony Sparano, the Jets seem committed to building an old-fashioned run-first offense. But General Manager Mike Tannenbaum and Coach Rex Ryan are smart guys. They know deep down that a run-oriented offense is more of a bandage than a building block, with the league becoming more pass-oriented. And no matter the system, the Jets are kidding themselves if they think Mark Sanchez is the long-term solution. Sanchez’s weaknesses – arm strength, pocket presence and anticipatory field-reading – are the exact weaknesses that a quality quarterback can’t have. If the Jets want to capitalize on their Super Bowl-caliber defense, they’d be wise to turn their offense over to No. 18.
The 49ers are in a similar situation to the Jets. They have an elite defense and rudimentary offense. The question is, Would owner Jed York want his club to fork over the big bucks when one fewer fumble could have landed them in the Super Bowl last year? And does Manning want to go to a land where no upper echelon wide receivers reside?
You can quash the Manning-to-the-Broncos rumors right now for the same reason that the Manning-to-the-Niners rumors are likely unfounded: no wide receivers. And Denver’s defense is not at San Francisco’s level.
Another team linked to Manning is the Cardinals, who can dump Kevin Kolb without taking a huge financial hit. The general idea behind Manning in red and white is, “Kurt Warner led this offense to a Super Bowl at the end of his career, so Manning can, too.”
That’s simplistic but solid reasoning. Also, what people don’t realize is the Cardinals’ young defense is a No. 2 corner and pass-rusher away from being of Super Bowl-quality. Ray Horton’s group improved drastically during the second half of last season, yielding fewer than 24 points in every game after Week 8. They’ll enter 2012 having had an entire off-season to learn the nuances of their Steeler-style scheme. If Manning went to Arizona, he’d play for a shrewd offensive coach (Ken Whisenhunt) in a controlled climate with a superstar wide receiver (Larry Fitzgerald) and perhaps the league’s fastest-rising defense. Arizona’s offensive line is deplorable, but because of his presnap mastery and strong foundation of fundamentals, Manning has never needed a good offensive line.
There’s also the Seahawks, who can match the Cardinals’ defense but not their wide receiver or warm climate. Also in play are the Chiefs, though those rumors may have derived largely from memories of the Joe Montana acquisition.
The only thing we do know at this point is, whichever team signs Manning will be doing the right thing. He’s a risk – perhaps even an enormous risk – but he brings a reward of “Super Bowl contention.” For N.F.L. teams, that’s the whole point.
